Will Hillary stop at one term?

John Podhoretz, writing in today's NY Post, examines that very premise. He quotes an unnamed Bush administration official who says he doesn't think she'll run for reelection for her Senate seat? Why? Too risky. The longer she serves as Senator the more votes she'll have to cast that will be open to scrutiny.

Remembe John Kerry's famous "I actually voted for the bill before I voted against it? That one came back to dog Kerry throughout the campaign and may have turned out to be his biggest political mistake. The recent bill over Terri Schiavo was passed by a "unanimous consent" voice vote and didn't require any Senators to go on the record. But what, asks Podhoretz, if she had been required to? And what if this was 2007 or 2008, not 2005?

He explains:

"This is exactly the kind of vote that would and should terrify any Democratic senator looking to expand his or her political base beyond the blue states. The passion surrounding the Schiavo case is a perfect reflection of the cultural divide between those Americans in whose life faith plays a central role and those who fancy themselves the heirs of Enlightenment reason."

No why should Republicans - especially NY Republicans - care if Hill opts out and concentrates full time on the Presidential campaign that EVERYBODY knows she is planning? Because two individuals from NY - George Pataki and Rudy Giuliani could benefit. Says Podhortez:

"[I]f Pataki went for the Senate seat, he would clear the way for none other than Rudy Giuliani to go up against the Democrat's all-but-certain nominee for governor, Eliot Spitzer.

Rudy could whale the tar out of Spitzer, a candidate about whom Democrats are overly confident in any case. The state attorney general is not a very good campaigner, as he demonstrated in 1998, when he very nearly lost his bid for attorney general to a truly horrible incumbent, Dennis Vacco.

Thus, Hillary's departure from the Senate could lead to a Republican pickup there and Giuliani in the Albany governor's mansion. This is a major two-fer — in part because Governor Rudy would be almost a certain vice presidential nominee for the Republicans in 2008.

Hillary could do herself some major damage inside her party if she causes it to lose ground in the Senate and lose its best shot in Albany in a decade."

Interesting to ponder. Especially since Giuliani's absence from the GOP Presidential field in 2008 would certainly shift the dynamics considerably.

Posted by: Gary at 06:38 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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