November 27, 2006

McCain Watch Poll Update

Okay, so the results are in. Let's take a look.

The questions: "If AZ Senator John McCain Earned The GOP Nomination in 2008, Would You Vote For Him?"

The answers/distribution:

6.0% - Absolutely, He's My First Choice For The Nomination
16.0% - He's Not My First Choice, But I'd Vote For Him In The General Election
30.0% - I Wouldn't Be Thrilled About It, But I'd Hold My Nose And Pull The Lever
20.0% - Only If Hillary Was The Democrat Candidate
6.0% - I Would Consider Not Voting On Election Day
6.0% - I Would Definitely Stay Home On Election Day
16.0% - I Would Vote Democrat Rather Than See McCain Become President

Of the seven choices, I would aggregate the first three answers as "yes", the last three as "no" and the middle option stipulating only if Hillary were the Dem nominee as a qualified "neutral".

Now, four months ago I ran an identical poll. The results were:

14.2% - Absolutely, He's My First Choice For The Nomination
14.2% - He's Not My First Choice, But I'd Vote For Him In The General Election
35.0% - I Wouldn't Be Thrilled About It, But I'd Hold My Nose And Pull The Lever
18.3% - Only If Hillary Was The Democrat Candidate
5.0% - I Would Consider Not Voting On Election Day
0.0% - I Would Definitely Stay Home On Election Day
13.3% - I Would Vote Democrat Rather Than See McCain Become President

Aggregating the answers, McCain has gone from Yes - 63.4%, No - 18.3%, Neutral - 18.3% in July to Yes - 52.0%, No - 28.0%, Neutral - 20.0% as of this morning. Certainly there is nothing scientific about an internet poll on a blog but I'm operating under the assumption that most of the votes come from people who are Republicans and/or lean Conservative. That being the case, this represents a shift in "favorability" away from McCain among those who would be in a position to vote on the nomination in 2008. In particular, the percentage voting "definitely stay home" or "vote Democrat" aggregate moved from 13.3% to 22.0%.

Now, personally, I would have guessed that McCain would experience a slight increase in the favorability in light of the prospect of a Shrillary Presidency with Dems in control of Congress. Eh, what do I know? It's still two years away and the field is wide-open. Expect at least a dozen or so candidates to throw their hats in. It will be interesting to see how this evolves over time.

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November 17, 2006

Updating The "McCain Watch" Poll

Now that the dust has settled (mostly) on Election 2006, what better time to trot out the "How Do You Feel About McCain?" poll - now in the sidebar to the left. Regular readers know how I feel about the AZ Senator and I have no reason to advocate any one particular answer. I'm just curious.

With the GOP turned out of power in Congress and the exit polls all pointing to the influence of the "middle" (however you define that) it will be interesting to note any changes from the last poll.

Are Republicans who were previously down on McCain giving him a second look in the wake of last week's results? Have more people moved away from him? It's your chance to weigh in. I'll leave it open until the 27th and then I'll compare the results.

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September 20, 2006

Polls: Beyond The Numbers

The MSM loves reporting about "newly released polls" (especially if they like the results) because frankly it's easy enough to throw out raw (and often select) numbers and make suggestions as to what they mean in the grand scheme of things.

But whether you like the results or not, it's critical to put them into historical context. This is just what Rich Galen of Mullings.com does on the recent data showing a trend in favor of the Republicans:

The big news was the answer to the question: "If the election for Congress were being held today which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional District?" This is known as the "generic vote;" it is asked without using candidates' names because the incumbent is often much better known than the challenger and will tend to sway the results.

Among likely voters, the answer was: Republican 48%; Democrat 48%. A Tie.

Among some Republican electoral experts, the feeling is: If the GOP is in the minus five percentage point range going into election day, that's good enough because the Republican turnout operation will overcome that.

He goes on to point out that, at this same time in 2004, the Democrats led Republicans on the generic ballot 45-41. The final result? Republicans won 50% to 48% at the Congressional level.

Yes, things are looking gloomy again for Democrats. But Republicans should be aware of what has made this shift. It's not so much a referendum on President Bush as it is on his anti-terror policies. And as long the GOP are able to keep the focus on this most important issue the more voters are inclined to keep to the status quo. Unless you're an unhinged Bush-hating moonbat, why risk it otherwise? Republican candidates should embrace the President on this issue.

Democrats, on the other hand have focused their full firepower on the President counting on the countries uneasiness over Iraq to be his undoing. Galen explains why this "strategery" is flawed:

I have thought this because the Democrats are making the same mistakes this year as we (I was running GOPAC that cycle, so I take my share of the blame for a flawed strategy) made in 1998: It was all anti-Clinton all the time.

The Democrats have placed all their electoral eggs in being all anti-Bush in the same strategic way. They have no positive message and, with less than two months to go, the chances of finally crafting a coordinated national message which will attract a majority of voters in a majority of the Congressional Districts are fading fast.

Of course, the vote for Members of Congress is not a national vote. It is 435 separate elections and while there are only seven weeks to go, there are still seven weeks to go.

Personally, I hope they keep it up.

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September 13, 2006

13 Point Lead For Lieberman In New Poll

Personally, I get a little skeptical when a sample size is less than 1,000. But this just-released SurveyUSA poll (sponsored by ABC News) has Joe leading Ned Lamont 51% to 38% - Republican Schlesinger has 7%, an all-time high.

It's still early but not a single poll since the primary in August has had Lamont leading (though he has been close). Lamont has less than eight weeks to convince non-Moonbats in CT to move in his direction. The closer we get to November 7th, the harder that task will be. It's not a name-recognition problem considering the amount of national press this race has received.

And with races tightening up in PA, OH, and MD, the DSCC has to decide how much resources they are willing to keep pouring into this match-up.

It may not be long before Ned Lamont and his nutroots supporters find themselves on their own.

UPDATE: 4:15PM
First the sizzle, then the fizzle.

I ran across this article in The Weekly Standard while I was away on vacation. The web hype for Ned Lamont's candidacy doesn't seem to be able to translate into a lead against an independent Lieberman. In light of this point, I quote Louis Wittig who compares the internet buzz that built up "Snakes On A Plan" to that of the Liberal blogosphere. In both cases, expectations end up falling short (ahem, Dr. Dean?). Wittig makes an excellent point:

The problem is that most people, both insiders and outsiders, misunderstand the internet's advantages and limitations.

It's perfectly understandable when political junkies and box office watchers conclude that web buzz augurs big things, but it's also perfectly backwards. We look at the humming activity of the blogosphere and assume the cadre of online enthusiasts behind it constitutes the tip of an off-line iceberg. It is assumed that for every posting on MyDD, or SoaP rap on YouTube, there must be dozens of people out there itching for impeachment of python gags.

Reality is just the opposite. People go to the blogosphere because they can't find a sizable number of people in their everyday, off-line lives that are as enthusiastic as they are. The blogosphere gathers together atypical fans and brings them together in what quickly becomes a broadband echo chamber. The louder and more intense the online community gets, the farther it's likely drifting from what is happening offline.

The nutroots keeps waiting for this Liberal "revolution" to take Washington by storm because they're under the delusion that they represent the majority point of view in America.

But whenever reality hits back at them, they seem unable to accept the idea that they really are nothing more than a fringe. And they resolve to just try harder for the next election.

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August 08, 2006

POLL UPDATE

I've update the Lieberman-Lamont race poll in the sidebar to account for how close this will or won't be. Go vote now!

This stays on top all day - scroll for updates.

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July 26, 2006

Lieberman V. Lamont

OK, new poll time. Pick the winner of the August 8th CT Democrat Senate Primary - Joe Lieberman or Ned Lamont. Go vote in the sidebar.

I'll leave it open through the end of the day on August 7th.

As for the McCain watch poll, the numbers were pretty similar to the last one with the major difference being that the "I Would Rather Vote Democrat Than See McCain Become President" category increasing from 4.7% to 13.3%.

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July 19, 2006

Gallup Mimics Ex-Donkey

Man, no sooner do I trot out my recurring "Would you vote for McCain" poll and Gallup goes and steals my thunder. Bastards!

Interesting to note is that in their poll, 41% or respondents find AZ Sen. John McCain "unacceptable" as a Presidential aspirant. The responses are purely a result of polling Republicans, while I have no way of guarantying the sample for my poll (in left sidebar).

Thus far, my results show about 20% pure "unacceptable" response. However, if you throw the "vote for him only if Hillary is running" category, that brings the "unacceptable" portion up to 38.6% - very close to the 41% that Gallup got. That's about the same as two months ago, when I posed the same choices.

Personally, I think McCain absolutely blew it back in May, 2005 when he rounded up his "Gang of 14" crew that prevented the abolition of the judicial filibuster. At that moment, a lot of potential supporters backed away for good. My guess is that any mending of fences that McCain tries to do with the base will be offset by other shenanigans that piss them off over the next two years. He's probably at his "high-water mark" for support among Republicans. My guess is that as it becomes clearer who else is running, his base support will drop even further.

Poll is still open through Friday, so go ahead and weigh in if you already haven't.

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July 13, 2006

John McCain Watch Update

Exactly two months ago, I posted a poll to see what the general feeling is about AZ Senator John McCain's Presidential prospects. I plan to update these results from time to time (is two months too short an interval?).

So check out the poll panel in the sidebar and weigh in. It'll be interesting to see if they change (and by how much) from last time around.

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July 05, 2006

Superman - The Poll

According to BoxOfficeMojo.com, from its opening on June 28th through July 4th "Superman Returns" pulled in $106 million dollars.

Did you see it, or know someone who did? Then cruise on over to the sidebar and chime in on what you thought in the newest poll!

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June 16, 2006

New Poll

Here are the results for the "you pick al-Zarqawi's hell" poll:

Which Scenario Do You Most Hope Is True For Al-Zarqawi's Afterlife?

32.0% Reincarnated As One Of Michael Jackson's Adopted Children

30.7% Satan's Love Slave

21.3% Locked In A Room For All Eternity With Barbra Striesand Music Piped In

13.3% One 72-Year Old Virgin...With Leprosy

2.7% Locked In A Room For All Eternity With A Collection Of Ben Affleck DVDs

Since we about one third into the summer movie season, I thought I'd get a read on which of the higher profile offerings have most underwhelmed your expectations.

Pop on over to the sidebar and place your vote!

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June 09, 2006

New Poll

Go to the sidebar to choose al-Zarqawi's eternal fate.

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June 02, 2006

New Poll

Well, with Dan, Peter and Tom gone from the airwaves, we have a new horserace over ratings for the Evening News.

Just for kicks, I set up a poll to see who you think will garner the lion's share of its ever-shrinking audience - Brian, Charlie or Katie. Go vote in the sidebar.

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May 26, 2006

New Poll

There's a new poll up in the sidebar. It's a fairly specialized one that'll mainly appeal to parents and caregivers of young children.

It's called "Survivor: Wiggle Bay". Assuming all of the Wiggles characters are stranded at Wiggle Bay to compete for the top prize, which one do you think would be voted off first?

Silly, yes. But I've been kicking around this scenario in my twisted mind for some time.

Have a great weekend!

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May 19, 2006

New Poll

As Phil Collins said, "It's.no.fun...being an illegal ay-lee-uh-un."

Go vote about the proposed barrier for the U.S.-Mexico border in the newest weekly poll.

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May 12, 2006

New Poll

This weeks latest poll is up in the sidebar: "How Will Gas Prices Affect Your Driving Habits This Summer?"

The results of the "If AZ Senator John McCain Earned The GOP Nomination in 2008, Would You Vote For Him" Poll were as follows:

(10.5%) = "Absolutely, He's My First Choice"
(15.1%) = "He's Not My First Choice, But I'd Vote For Him In The General Election"
(36.0%) = "I Wouldn't Be Thrilled About It, But I'd Hold My Nose And Pull The Lever"
(23.3%) = "Only If Hillary Was The Democrat Candidate"
(5.8%) = "I Would Consider Not Voting On Election Day"
(4.7%) = "I Would Definitely Stay Home On Election Day"
(4.7%) = "I Would Vote Democrat Rather Than See McCain Become President"

So while McCain completely turns off 15% of the respondents, 85% would vote for McCain under the right circumstances. Of that amount, a full three quarters of respondents are resigned to voting for McCain if he gets the nomination.

But if John McCain wants the GOP nomination, he has a long way to go before he earns enough core support to have any hope. Certainly, the biggest factor is field of candidates. But at this point, despite his popularity with the media, I think his chances of becoming the nominee are pretty piss poor. Keep in mind that this is as unscientific a poll as you could get (with the possible exception of the CBS/NY Times poll, that is).

I will run this same poll agains every three months to see if any trends develop.

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May 05, 2006

New Poll

Even though we're two full years out from the 2008 Presidential primary season, the name of Arizona Senator John McCain is the subject of much discussion as the potential 2008 nominee. The MSM have all but anointed him but most Republicans and Republican-leaning voters have some definite feelings about his candidacy.

I'll likely repeat this poll every few months and track the responses for any trends. So go sound off about the "straight talk express".

Note: I've moved the Weekly Poll a little farther down the sidebar, after the "Day By Day" cartoon.

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April 24, 2006

80's Crush Tournament - Championship Match-Up

In what was the closest margin of any of these match-ups, Lynda Carter has triumphed over Elisabeth Shue by 2 votes. Now on to the Championship Round.

In this corner, wearing the blue shorts with white stars, we have:

Lynda Carter

And in this corner, sporting the leopard-skin one-piece bathing suit, we have:

Morgan Fairchild

Both of these lovely ladies are roughly of the same vintage, have baby blue eyes, hail from the Southwestern U.S and each found fame on television as opposed to the movies. This is as tough a match-up as you get. It's the blonde v. the brunette.

Let's get ready to...RUMBLE! Voting continues through noon on Friday.

View updated Tournament bracket HERE.

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April 21, 2006

80's Crush Tournament Update

We have out first contender for the 80's Crush Championship: Morgan Fairchild. After heavy voting, she was able to hold off a challenge from Lea Thompson despite an official endorsement of the dimpled beauty by the Llamas. Congrats to Lea for her strong showing since the Divisional Round.

Next up, we have Elisabeth Shue facing off against Lynda Carter. Voting will remain open through 12 noon on Monday and the winner will advance to the Championship match-up.

View updated Tournament brackett HERE.

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April 19, 2006

80's Crush Tournament Semi-Finals Wrap-Up

Looks like Lisa Shue ran away with this one. Now the seeds are set for the Final Four round:

Elisabeth Shue versus Lynda Carter
and
Morgan Fairchild versus Lea Thompson

First up, is the Fairchild/Thompson match-up. Voting will remain open through 12 noon on Friday and the Shue/Carter match-up will then run through the weekend until Monday.

Once set, the winners of each will square off against each other for the Championship, which will run through next Friday. That afternoon, the overall winner will be declared and on Saturday April 29th I'll post a "tribute" to that lucky lady complete with new images. Let the voting begin!

View updated Tournament brackett HERE.

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April 17, 2006

80's Crush Tournament Update

We have our first "upset" of the Tournament with Lea Thompson beating out higher-ranked seed Jaclyn Smith to advance to the Final Four.

There is one spot remaining for the finals and that match-up is Erin Gray against Elisabeth Shue (a personal favorite of Llama Steve-O). Voting remains open through 12 noon on Wednesday, at which time we will move to the Finals round. Hey, something has to tide me over until NFL Draft weekend.

View updated Tournament brackett HERE.

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