November 27, 2006

McCain Watch Poll Update

Okay, so the results are in. Let's take a look.

The questions: "If AZ Senator John McCain Earned The GOP Nomination in 2008, Would You Vote For Him?"

The answers/distribution:

6.0% - Absolutely, He's My First Choice For The Nomination
16.0% - He's Not My First Choice, But I'd Vote For Him In The General Election
30.0% - I Wouldn't Be Thrilled About It, But I'd Hold My Nose And Pull The Lever
20.0% - Only If Hillary Was The Democrat Candidate
6.0% - I Would Consider Not Voting On Election Day
6.0% - I Would Definitely Stay Home On Election Day
16.0% - I Would Vote Democrat Rather Than See McCain Become President

Of the seven choices, I would aggregate the first three answers as "yes", the last three as "no" and the middle option stipulating only if Hillary were the Dem nominee as a qualified "neutral".

Now, four months ago I ran an identical poll. The results were:

14.2% - Absolutely, He's My First Choice For The Nomination
14.2% - He's Not My First Choice, But I'd Vote For Him In The General Election
35.0% - I Wouldn't Be Thrilled About It, But I'd Hold My Nose And Pull The Lever
18.3% - Only If Hillary Was The Democrat Candidate
5.0% - I Would Consider Not Voting On Election Day
0.0% - I Would Definitely Stay Home On Election Day
13.3% - I Would Vote Democrat Rather Than See McCain Become President

Aggregating the answers, McCain has gone from Yes - 63.4%, No - 18.3%, Neutral - 18.3% in July to Yes - 52.0%, No - 28.0%, Neutral - 20.0% as of this morning. Certainly there is nothing scientific about an internet poll on a blog but I'm operating under the assumption that most of the votes come from people who are Republicans and/or lean Conservative. That being the case, this represents a shift in "favorability" away from McCain among those who would be in a position to vote on the nomination in 2008. In particular, the percentage voting "definitely stay home" or "vote Democrat" aggregate moved from 13.3% to 22.0%.

Now, personally, I would have guessed that McCain would experience a slight increase in the favorability in light of the prospect of a Shrillary Presidency with Dems in control of Congress. Eh, what do I know? It's still two years away and the field is wide-open. Expect at least a dozen or so candidates to throw their hats in. It will be interesting to see how this evolves over time.

Posted by: Gary at 10:45 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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November 17, 2006

Updating The "McCain Watch" Poll

Now that the dust has settled (mostly) on Election 2006, what better time to trot out the "How Do You Feel About McCain?" poll - now in the sidebar to the left. Regular readers know how I feel about the AZ Senator and I have no reason to advocate any one particular answer. I'm just curious.

With the GOP turned out of power in Congress and the exit polls all pointing to the influence of the "middle" (however you define that) it will be interesting to note any changes from the last poll.

Are Republicans who were previously down on McCain giving him a second look in the wake of last week's results? Have more people moved away from him? It's your chance to weigh in. I'll leave it open until the 27th and then I'll compare the results.

Posted by: Gary at 11:15 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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