April 21, 2006

The Democrats' Long Shot

We keep hearing about the possibility of the Democrats taking the House in November. One of the big numbers being thrown around is how they "only" have to unseat fifteen Republican incumbents to take a tenuous one-seat majority of the lower chamber.

But what pundits are forgetting is that in addition to taking those seats, they would have to hold every single district currently held by a Democrat. And, as Nathan Gonzales points out in his column at TownHall.com, no party has managed to do that in the last fifty years. He explains:

"In 1958, Democrats took over 49 seats (defeating 35 Republican incumbents and winning 14 GOP open seats), while Republicans still defeated a single Democratic incumbent. Eight years later, Republicans took over 43 Democratic seats, but Democrats simultaneously took over four GOP-held seats.

In 1980, Republicans took over 37 Democratic seats, but Republicans managed to pick off four seats from the DemocratsÂ’ column. And in 1994, Republicans took over 56 Democratic seats (defeating 34 incumbents and winning 22 Democratic open seats), yet Democrats still won four Republican-held open seats."

Bottom line: As unlikely as it is that Democrats could manage to win all fifteen of the races they would need to take from the GOP, the task becomes even tougher if they were to lose a seat or two of their own.

Gonzales looks at eleven Democrat seats that are vulnerable to flipping Republican. And I can guaranty you that Karl Rove's recent reassignment to political matters will be focused on all of them. So before Dems start to get giddy about their prospects, they better be watching their backs or they're likely to find come November 8th that the make-up of the next Congress will be fairly status quo.

Posted by: Gary at 09:07 AM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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1 If the dems cant win in November, America needs a new party. The repubs have totally dismantled the country, smashed out rights in the name of "terror," and sent us back into the dark ages with their anti-education, anti-science christian extremist agendas. Bush has destabilized the mideast by unseating Saddam. Corruption is rampant and spending is out of control. Your grandkids will be paying for Bush's spending habits. And they will be walking because they wont be able to afford to drive. One would think the three stooges could be elected as democrats, but you never know.

Posted by: independent guy at April 21, 2006 08:39 AM (Rpc8P)

2 If the dems cant win in November, America needs a new party. [agreed] The repubs have totally dismantled the country, [still in existence from what I can tell] smashed out rights in the name of "terror," [specifically, which rights have been "smashed out"? not a single substantiated violation of civil rights has been made under any provision of the Patriot Act] and sent us back into the dark ages with their anti-education, anti-science christian extremist agendas. [last time I checked, America was still on the cutting edge of science, medicine, technology and porn] Bush has destabilized the mideast by unseating Saddam. [no serious person can credibly describe the Middle-East pre-2003 as "stabilized"] Corruption is rampant [name me one Democrat-controlled urban center not rife with corruption] and spending is out of control. [the idea that Democrats in Congress can be described as fiscally responsible is a joke - when in history has a Democrat-controlled Congress balanced the budget? here's a hint: never] Your grandkids will be paying for Bush's spending habits. [that's Congress' spending habits (both parties) - please educate yourself as to how our government works. and Republicans didn't waste over $3 billion on a bogus "war on poverty"] And they will be walking because they wont be able to afford to drive. [if gas were $10/gallon, people would still be able to "afford to drive" if they went without a daily trip to Starbucks or a night out at the movies, - and if we drilled in ANWR ten years ago, we wouldn't be as dependent on foreign oil, (thanks enviro-whackos)] One would think the three stooges could be elected as democrats, but you never know. [Voters would sooner trust the three stooges with national security before any of those ass-clowns]

Posted by: Gary at April 21, 2006 10:08 AM (QoxB+)

3 Yee-OUCH!

Posted by: Robert the Llama Butcher at April 21, 2006 10:36 AM (IkTb7)

4 Nice fisking! Subtle, yet brutally accurate.

Posted by: Bret at April 21, 2006 10:36 AM (WIFkt)

5 Heh. Way to demolish the tired talking points litany.

Posted by: Tuning Spork at April 21, 2006 12:12 PM (Ig7dy)

6 And don't get tired of it. Those same points will be regurgitated even louder as we near the fall 'cuz that's the best hope the Democrats have.

Posted by: Tuning Spork at April 21, 2006 12:14 PM (Ig7dy)

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