Red States Rising...

Red State.org looks at population projections made by Polidata, which predicts that after 2010, there will be a net gain of six Electoral Votes for current States that went for Bush in 2004. And of course if this prediction pans out it means really good news for the GOP. The .pdf file of the data is here.

The data suggests that the reapportionment of Congressional seats due to shifting population as recorded by the 2010 Census will take away one Electoral Vote each from the following Blue States: IA, IL, MA, MI, MN, MO and PA and two each from NY and OH. Where will they go? Well, except for one which goes to CA, they go to Red States: TX and FL get three each, with one additional to each of the following: GA, NV, AZ and UT.

The summary of the analysis is:

"Regionally, the Northeast would lose 4 seats, from 101 to 97; the Midwest would lose 7 seats, from 124 to 117; the South would gain 7 seats, from 189 to 196; and the West would gain 4 seats, from 124 to 128 seats. This would result in a loss of 4 seats for the 27 states (inc. DC) East of the Mississippi from 313 to 309 and a gain of 4 seats for the 24 states West of the Mississippi from 225 to 229."

In other words, by the time of the 2012 Presidential election, it would become virtually impossible to hobble together the necessary 271 without garnering a single Southern State. And as the post at RedState points out, the South will have double the EVs of the Northeast.

So it's easy to see DNC Chairman's motivation to tour the American heartland - especially in the South to try and shore up support for Democrats. It's just pretty darn tough to figure out how he'll be able to do it.

Posted by: Gary at 11:08 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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