July 27, 2005
Allen remains the favorite with Washington insiders. Conservatives believe that, in a crowded primary, a consensus candidate will have to appear. With many disgusted by McCain, ideologically out of sync with Giuliani or Pataki, and unsure of the ability of lesser-known candidates like Huckabee and Pawlenty, Allen just makes good sense. HeÂ’s reliably conservative, is generally considered to have what it takes to win the general election, and doesnÂ’t have any gaping holes as a candidate. His only electoral problem in terms of the primary is that he may not be able to win either of the first two races in Iowa and New Hampshire. He may have to settle on starting with South Carolina and sweeping the South, hoping to knock some candidates, namely Tim Pawlenty, out of the race. Mike Huckabee would probably be his main competition in Southern primaries.Of course it's way to early. But if you assume Pawlenty wins Iowa because he's a local boy from neighboring Minnesota and McCain takes New Hampshire (with the support of the MSM, of course) I don't see those two contests meaning all that much anymore in terms of momentum. Momentum would come to a candidate not expected to win either contest.
I've already laid out my reasons for backing Allen, not the least of which is that he's the most attractive Conservative that has a good shot of winning nationally. Saler's analysis that he "just makes good sense" pretty much hits the mark.
Off note, according to Saler, on the Dem side the top five are:
2) Evan "empty suit" Bayh
3) Wesley "deer in the headlights" Clark
4) John "man of the people in a mansion" Edwards &
5) Mark "no moonbat would vote for me" Warner
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