November 09, 2005

Virginia Analysis

New Jersey's results are not really a surprise. The Dem machine owns that state. NYC, again no surprise. Bloomberg is popular and Ferrer is a weak opponent. The California initiatives? Didn't follow them all that much, but in a state dominated by Democrats, even parental notification wasn't a shoo-in.

Now Virginia. A lot of spin will be made this morning about how this bodes badly for the GOP in 2006. I'm not buying it. This was basically Gov. Mark Warner's reelection by proxy. Kaine is his Lt. Gov. and Warner's approval ratings are in the 70's. From what I understand, Kilgore ran a negative campaign that probably turned off a lot of independents (both parties can learn a valuable lesson here).

Three points:
1) After last night, the Democrats have a net increase in Governorships in the amount of...zero.

2) A Democrat Governor in a "Red" state doesn't mean a whole heckuva lot. Connecticut has a Republican Governor, Jodi Rell. She is currently finishing out the term of John Rowland who resigned because he was both corrupt and stupid. Despite the fact the CT is as "Blue" a state as your granny's wig (stole that one from Pam Meister), she is favored to be elected in her own right in 2006).

3) Steve the Llamabutcher points out an interesting trend in Virginia:

Nationally, it just really doesn't mean that much: since 1989, the Virginians have elected a governor of the opposite party of the president elected the year before. 1988-Bush (R) 41, 1989-Wilder (D); 1992 Clinton (D), 1993-Allen (R); 1996 Clinton (D), 1997 Gilmore (R); 2000 Bush (R) 43, 2001 Warner (D); 2004 Bush (R), 2005 apparently Kaine (D).
Let the Dems crow today, they need a little sunshine. They'll go back to being bitter and angry by the end of the week. Can't wait for the money quotes from Howard Dean.

One other thing, though. This result is a major boost for Mark Warner in his expected bid for the Presidency in 2008. Hillary was hoping to avoid a nasty primary battle, but with Warner hitting her on the right, she'll need to rally the moonbats, which should make for a lot of fist-pounding and high-pitched shrieking in here speeches. Good enough for archiving and playing back during the general election.

UPDATE: 9:30am
John Podhoretz in the NY Post puts Virginia in perspective:

Now, it's true that George W. Bush won Virginia by 8 percentage points in 2004, while Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore appears to have lost by 5 points. But if you think Kilgore's loss reflects Bush's weakness and a nightmare for the GOP in 2006, consider this:

Bush won Virginia by eight points in 2000, too — and the following year Democrat Mark Warner became governor with a 5-point margin of victory. The next year, in 2002, Republicans won a stunning midterm victory, taking four Senate seats and expanding their majority in the House of Representatives.

Those results suggest that the outcome of the Virginia governor's race will have nothing whatsoever to do with what happens in November 2006.

Something to chew on.

Posted by: Gary at 07:14 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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