And this guy should know...

Mark Mellman, Democrat pollster (whose last employer was the Kerry/Edwards campaign) has a warning to Dems about the fastest-growing portion of the electorate - the Latino voters. They should listen. But they won't.

Now I heartily believe that Democrats face three basic problems with voters of Hispanic heritage:

• Strike one: members of this community are, by and large, socially conservative
• Strike two: they believe that they have a chance at achieving the American dream through hard work and sacrifice and are less subject to the “victim mentality” pushed by the Democrat party
• Strike three: once Hispanic voters establish a voting pattern, they tend to be extremely loyal to that affiliation

Mellman discusses the gradual erosion of the percentage of Latino voters supporting the Democrats in favor of the GOP over the last four years:

"Shortly after the election, I wrote here that for too long Democrats had considered Latinos part of the base, failing to acknowledge changes and contradictions in their political views. For example, we found in 2002 that while Latinos identified as Democrats, unlike other partisans, they bore relatively little ill will toward Republicans — a dangerous situation for us...

...While polls still differ on the precise level of KerryÂ’s Latino support, they all converge on a decline of four to seven points compared to 2000. Over a longer period, the declines are even steeper. Dukakis garnered 65-69 percent of the Latino vote, a far cry from KerryÂ’s 57 percent."

HereÂ’s a hint to the Democrats: youÂ’re not going to reverse this trend by lurching left. Mellman's final statement should give the Democrats food for thought:

"Recapturing the enthusiasm of the Hispanic community is a central task for Democrats. To be successful, we must first admit we have a problem and locate it with precision. Only then will we be able to develop the strategies and tactics to stanch the losses."

Posted by: Gary at 12:17 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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