My Votes Are Cast

Are yours?

At no point in this election season did I ever - EVER - consider not voting. It's almost like I've been in line to vote for the last year. And I finally did so at around 8:15 this morning. Turnout at my polling place was a lot higher than I expected.

But brace yourself for Republican-turnout dampening doom and gloom. Yes, the networks say they're not "officially" releasing exit polls but as soon as they become available to the MSM, they'll leak faster than a Depends adult diaper on "Nickel Beer Thursday" at a college bar.

No matter what you hear, don't believe them. You remember how F'd up the exit polls were two years ago don't you? And exit polls aren't quickie "who did you vote for" polls, they're extended interviews with lots of demographic and issues questions. I don't have time for that. I'm not a college student with nothing better to do or a union member who has the day off. I have to cast my vote and get my butt to work. If the exit pollers asked me to talk to them this morning I would have had to respectfully decline because I was already running late. Also, it's important to note that in most races there is a higher than normal rate of absentee balloting and early voting among Republicans, which means they will be fewer than normal at the actual polling places today.

I'm not making predictions because I have nothing on which to base them other than what my gut tells me. Any pollster that picks the results accurately by the end of the day will be the luckiest sumbitch in the political world. Because he doesn't know either. I've always believed that, when all is said and done, the GOP holds both chambers of Congress. I still believe that.

Here's what I do know. These races are a lot closer than the "Blue wave" hype would have had you expect. Races that are dead even or where Republicans are trailing a few points give the GOP a distinct advantage because of their excellent GOTV operation. I think we're in for a few surprises today. It looks like the NY Times is even hedging its bets.

The only prediction I will make is that there will likely be at least a handful of House races that are so close that the lawyers will be out in full force Wednesday morning. It's quite possible (maybe probable) that we won't have solid results by the end of the evening, or even tomorrow.

Regardless of what happens I won't be posting for at least another twenty-four hours. So let the shit fall where it may.

If you're looking for insider scuttlebutt, more power to you. Go visit and bookmark "the indispensible" Jim Geraghty, NRO's The Corner and Sixers. And check in with Hugh Hewitt every now and again.

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The Board Is Set, The Pieces Are Moving

We've all had the experience of sitting in a movie theater or in our living rooms watching a movie where events were unfolding toward an unmitigated disaster. You see characters doing things they shouldn't (or not doing things that they should) but you only know this because you have more information than they do. You're helpless to change anything and all you can do is watch and cringe.

Well, you have all the information you need about this election. And you're powerless to affect the outcome on grand scale. But you do have control of one thing: your vote.

If you choose not to cast your ballot or if you decide to vote for someone you wouldn't otherwise vote for simply to "send a message" to people you're unhappy with you may look back on this time with the realization of what a mistake that was.

You might look back from a recession because Democrats raised taxes and threw the brakes on this strong economy.

You might look back from a ridiculous Constitution-gutting Supreme Court ruling based on a 5-4 decision because Stevens or Ginsburg retired and the President couldn't get a decent nomination out of the Judiciary Committee.

Or you might look back from a devastating terrorist attack because Democrats took away important tools from our military and intelligence services that would have stopped it.

Will you look back from any of these scenarios and realize that you did nothing to stop this? Maybe Republicans will lose control of one or even both Houses of Congress anyway. But do you want to look back with the regret that you helped that happen?

I don't. And I won't.

This election will be fought in every State and every district and it will come down to turnout. And that turnout starts with you and me.

What do you say, Bluto?

Hat Tip to The Colossus for the clip.

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We Always Knew John Zogby Sucked, Now We Know He's Crooked

If it wasn't bad enough that John Zogby has screwed the pooch on his predictions three election cycles in a row, now he just got busted for cooking his results.

What a load.

h/t: JPod at The Corner

Generics are all moving toward the GOP. Gallup's will be released tonight.

UPDATE:
Gallup's generic closes from 13 points to 7 - same trend.

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You Want Optimism?

I'll give ya optimism...

Dean Barnett is absolutely "bursting" in anticipation of Tuesday (to use his word). He's looking at the polls and here's his take:

What is even more of a mystery is why they all erred in the same direction, dramatically favoring the Democrat. IÂ’ve offered theories in the past why this is so, and IÂ’ll briefly summarize them for those with better things to do this fine Saturday than thumb through my archives: Liberals are bigmouths who canÂ’t wait to share their opinions with strangers. Conservatives have lives.

To take a more serious look at the matter, what the polls measure right now are people passionate or bored enough to spend a half hour talking to a stranger or, worse still, punching buttons on their telephone when prompted to by a recording. Democrats are more likely to tolerate this exercise, just as they were more likely to tolerate the inquisition of an eager grad student as they left the polls on Election Day Â’04.

The pollsters have also yet to devise a way of predicting who’s actually going to show up on Election Day. One poll I read talked to some 1200 registered voters and deemed 1000 of them “likely voters.” Since even a presidential year generates only 60% turnout max, the pollster’s conclusion that over 80% of the people he spoke with are “likely voters” is the professional equivalent of him throwing his hands in the air and saying, “How the hell should I know who’s actually going to vote?”

Of course, the pollsters canÂ’t say that because if they confess weaknesses in their methods, theyÂ’re less likely to have customers queued up to purchase their services. So instead they must perform a charade in which they profess omniscience.

SO WHAT ARE THE POLLSTERS MISSING? Well, first theyÂ’re missing the fact that a disproportionate amount of Republicans are likely to tell them to take a hike. Next, theyÂ’re overestimating the enthusiasm on the left. For all the cacophonous din that emanates from the left, itÂ’s critical to note that even their greatest hero, Ned Lamont, underperformed the polls on primary day. By several points.

Lastly, and most importantly, theyÂ’re missing a historic Republican Get Out The Vote (GOTV) effort. Republicans are going to turn out like itÂ’s a presidential year. Independents and Democrats will turn out like itÂ’s an important midterm. The Republican turnout will be worth between a few and several points in every race where thereÂ’s an effective Republican machine. And that includes every battleground state.

Lest you think IÂ’m whistling Dixie, weÂ’re already seeing the results of the Republican efforts. Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that early voting and absentee ballot results suggest Republicans are indeed voting in greater numbers than in 2004. (Sorry, no link, but you can trust me, right?)

None of the foregoing means the polls are worthless. It just means that to get an accurate gauge on things, you have to add a significant layer of Republican support to the reported numbers.

So what’s it all mean? In the tied races, the Republican will win. In the close races, the Republican will win. It adds up to Republicans running the table in the Senate. That’s right – running the table. Montana, Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee, New Jersey, Rhode Island (whoopee), and Maryland will all send or re-send Republicans to the Senate. But wait, there’s more! Michigan will send Sheriff Michael Bouchard to the Senate. And in Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is in striking distance.

In the House, the same holds true. Republican Joe Negron will take FoleyÂ’s seat. New MexicoÂ’s Heather Wilson will return to Congress. So, too, will ConnecticutÂ’s Chris Shays. WeÂ’ll lose a handful of seats for the individual failures of certain Congressmen (hello, Curt Weldon), but we will retain control of the House.

Okay, IÂ’m officially out on the limb. But IÂ’m comfortable here. The paradigm has shifted. People like Stu Rothenberg are like old generals re-fighting the last war; theyÂ’re re-analyzing the last election without realizing that certain key facts on the ground have changed.

Hey, if the end result is exactly mid-way between this prediction and the doom-and-gloom scenario that the MSM is pushing, I'll be "bursting" come Wednesday morning.

And you know those "generic ballot" polls? Jim Geraghty points this out:

Yes, on November 6, 1994, among registered voters, ABC News/Washington Post had the Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, 47 percent to 42. So we know just how valuable an indicator it is.

The year the GOP swept both houses of Congress, the WaPo had the Dems leading by five points? What a bunch of crap. Remember, the generic ballot poll always favors Dems.

Even MSNBC is conceding the Senate to the GOP. If their willing to admit that, are they laying the ground work for a major backtrack from this "Democrat wave" prediction? Hmmmm.

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DEATH!

...By hanging for crimes against humanity.

"In the streets of Dujail, a Tigris River city of 84,000, people celebrated and burned pictures of their former tormentor as the verdict was read."

Personally, I would have preferred drawing and quartering.

Game over.

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Melissa Supports The Troops

...well, the French Troops, anyway.

She even looks good in camouflage!

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Election '06: Dispatches From CT

A/K/A: What's in my mailbox.

OK, I've been Robo-called to death over the last couple of weeks, from both sides and from just about every special interest group out there. The wife is officially unaffiliated (though her votes mirror mine) so her name probably attracts the Dem-supporting groups. I got a message the other day on my answering machine from old Jack "Okinawa" Murtha.

Anyways, yesterday I went out to the mailbox and what did I see?

From "The Committee To Elect Chris Murphy" (D): a flyer with photos featuring Bush, Cheney, Mark Foley and Tom DeLay "change the people we send [to Washington]". Theme: vote for change

From "Republicans Who Care Individual Fund": "Thanks Congresswoman Johnson!" highlighting her vote for expanded stem cell research. Theme: "A brighter future for CT families". OK, personally, I'm against Federal funding for embryonic stem-cell research but this is CT, after all. So I have to give her a pass on this one.

From "Americans For Job Security": Basically, if elected, Chris Murphy will vote to tax the living shit out of you. Vote for Nancy Johnson. Features photo of Murphy standing beside San Fran Nan. Incidentally, I got two copies of this flyer though they were probably stuck together in the mailing process.

From "Friends Of Joe Lieberman" (I): Basically positive Pro-Joe flyer - "Always Standing Up For What's Right". With a big smack-you-the-face graphic pointing out that Lieberman is on the bottom line of the ballot. I swear to God I've gotten so many of these notices that if there's a single voter in the state of CT who doesn't know where to find Joe when they go into that voting booth they must be brain dead (or from Palm Beach County, FL)

There you have it. And I haven't even checked my mailbox this afternoon yet. I'll be so glad when this is over. I'm getting more mailers than catalogs these days.

UPDATE:
Today's mail:

(Actually this one was for yesterday but I just found it stuck in a catalog)
From "Connecticut Republican State Central Committee": "Do yo uwant the world to be a safer place?" - Basically, Dems are against everything that keeps us safe from terrorist attacks. Which is a fact. Theme: Vote Republican, your life depend on it.

From "Connecticut Republican State Central Committee": "For a stronger Connecticut" - showcases the slate of Republicans on the ballot: Gov. Rell, Nancy Johnson...and oh by the way there's this guy named Schlesinger who's...ahem...running for U.S. Senate (snicker).

From "Jodi Rell 06" (R): "I'd be honored to have your support". Very generic. Rell honestly doesn't even need to send mailers (although this is the first one I've gotten). She's so ahead in the polls her election is a foregone conclusion. But she's obviously not taking any chances.

Oh, and I also got three more Robo-calls today. One was from John McCain for Nancy Johnson (my second in the last three days).

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Diane Lane Photo Of The Week

And this week's Diane Lane Netflix Pick of the Week:

Unfaithful (2002)

Synopsis:
In Adrian Lyne's erotic thriller, Diane Lane is Connie, a wife and mother who lives in a beautiful house with her handsome husband, Edward (Richard Gere). But their marriage has lost its sexual spark, and when Connie literally runs into handsome book collector Paul (Olivier Martinez), he sweeps her into an all-consuming affair. But Edward soon becomes suspicious...

Gary's take: I'm not sure what 20th Century Fox Studios was thinking when they scheduled this film's release date - one week before "Spider-man" and two weeks before Star Wars, Episode II (another movie distributed by Fox) - but this one didn't do nearly as well at the box office as I feel it could have had it not had that kind of competition. Face it, guys. This one is a guilty pleasure. And yes I own a copy on DVD. I always thought Diane was sexy. But in this one she was a different kind of sexy, the down and dirty kind.

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BSG Tonight

"Torn"
9pm on Sci-Fi

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Steele Seems To Have The Big Mo

Lt. Governor Michael Steele may very well be one of the biggest stories on Wednesday. He's had quite a week, picking up important endorsements and smacking down his opponent, Ben Cardin, on "Meet The Press".

Now Steele, who has come from behind in the polls, is tied with Cardin and picking up steam.

African-American voters in Maryland seem to be getting fed up with Democrats taking them for granted and are giving Steele a closer look. As enthusiasm for his candidacy builds, this Blue-as-can-be State may just have a Republican Senator after next week.

Check out Michelle Malkin's interview with Michael Steele here. Stay tuned.

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Friday's Melissa Pic

Because I'm getting tired of posting about politics.

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NYT Drives Stake Into The Heart Of "NO WMD's" Meme

Look, I know exactly where the New York Times thinks they're going with this. The article goes way out of it's way to spin this as some kind of blunder on Bush's part (and how hilarious is it the the Times, which has been wantonly and recklessly leaking sensitive classified material all this time, now thinks it's a big deal that sensitive classified material is available via the government?).

But I don't think they fully appreciate what they've just done. They're revealing that Saddam Hussein was actively working on a nuclear weapon program, had pretty-much all the know-how and only lacked certain elements to put it all together.

So what happens to the the "Iraq had no WMDs" mantra of the Left? It's dead. Buried. Finished.

And doesn't this sentence send a chill up your spine?

"Experts say that at the time, Mr. HusseinÂ’s scientists were on the verge of building an atom bomb, as little as a year away."

Jim Geraghty is incredulous that the NYT would openly admit this.

So Iraq had all the know-how, all the plans, all the designs, "charts, diagrams, equations and lengthy narratives about bomb building." Unless they were keeping these documents around as future material for paper airplanes, all this stuff constituted a plan of action for some point in the future; but to complete creating these weapons, they would have needed stuff. I don't know an exact list of what they would have needed, but articles like this one give a good idea. Sounds like you need a firing mechanism (the right kind of firearm would suffice), some fairly common industrial equipment like a lathe, material for the bomb casing, some fairly common conventional explosives, all of which would have been easy to get in Iraq. Oh, and, of course, the nuclear material itself.

They would have needed something like... um... you know... what's that stuff called? Oh, that's right.

Yellowcake.

But we know Iraq would never make an effort to get yellowcake. Joe Wilson had tea with officials in Niger who said so.

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Evolution Explained In One Minute

I saw this on "South Park" last night but somehow it just seems funnier this morning. Hat Tip to Allahpundit for finding the YouTube clip. No matter where you stand on evolution, you should get a good chortle from this. It really does present Darwin's theory in an interesting light.

Nothing profane but it is after all "South Park", so don't go boosting them speakers too loud at work if ya know what I mean.

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The Photo That The MSM Is Ignoring

John Hinderaker of Powerline and I have something in common. We both didn't post this photo because we assumed it would be overkill:

Drudge has it up as do many bloggers, but the MSM has absolutely ignored it. Wonder why? Thus far, only the NY Post has picked up the story, calling it a "smart bomb" dropped on Kerry. So here it is.

Unfortunately, I had to crop it a bit because MuNu is having problems with turning images into thumbnails.

And the unit has been identified: 1st Brigade Combat Team of the 34th Infantry Division (MN National Guard). Give 'em hell, guys!

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The Witching Hour For Last Minute Dem Dirty Tricks

Based on what I've seen since 1992, the best window of opportunity for Dem operatives to drop an electoral bomb that would have its maximum affect on Tuesday is about to open.

Back when Bubba was squaring off against Bush 41 and the little martian, they released an allegation that Bush 41 knew more than he testified to over Iran-Contra. While Clinton may have won anyway, polls were tightening heading into the final weekend. If I recall correctly, the info was released the Thursday before the election.

Back in 2000, George W. Bush had a growing lead heading into the final week. The Thursday before the election, out pops the 25-year old DWI story. Incidentally, the guy up in Maine who was behind that little maneuver was recently arrested for dressing up like Osama Bin Laden and holding what turned out to be a toy gun on a streetcorner.

Why Thursday? Because that's the ideal time to dominate the media with a breaking story that will carry all the way through the weekend news cycle. It's just an MO that I've come to expect over the years. I'm sure the Foley situation was originally supposed to drop around now, but the Dems were worried so they let 'er rip earlier than they had planned.

In any event, if there's something else that they're hiding up their sleeve than the time to expect it would be between noon today and late afternoon Friday.

There very well may be nothing, but my advice would be to keep hitting "refresh" on Drudge until the weekend.

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New On The Blogroll

Walls of the City.

Featuring the pic of the soldier's response to John effin' Kerry.

And a BSG fan to boot. Go check him out. Now!

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Ned-renaline Level Dropping Fast - Campaign Dispirited

The New York Observer has an article today that looks at the sad state of the Ned Lamont campaign six days out from election day.

Democratic strategists and consultants, some of them sympathetic to the campaign, are already talking about it in the past tense.

“I think it was possible for Lamont to pull it off,” said Bob Shrum, a veteran political analyst. “There were moments right after the primary where it was basically a tied race.”

Yeah, that's quite the analysis from the "loss leader" himself. Shrum has the distinction of managing eight losing Democrat Presidential candidates. It would seem that it's all over but the finger pointing.

The apparent end of the much-ballyhooed Lamont phenomenon is causing a great deal of soul-searching and recrimination in all corners of the Democratic Party. The bloggers that once championed Mr. Lamont as an awkward but earnest savior now alternately blame WashingtonÂ’s strategists for hijacking their candidate and Democratic leaders for abandoning him. Beltway consultants fault the Lamont campaign for failing to move the candidate beyond his left-wing celebrity and define him for a greater electorate.

There's plenty of blame to go around. But if those that make up the nutroots are honest with themselves they'll consider the possibility that Bush-hatred is not enough to win support outside of their fringe movement and win in a general election. Though the chances of that are slim. The biggest target of blame seems to be aimed at Howard Wolfson, the consultant to Hillary that Her Shrillness lent to Lamont's campaign.

Still, bloggers held Mr. Wolfson responsible for the campaignÂ’s derailment. This month, the left-wing Huffington Post compiled its readersÂ’ grievances about the fizzling campaign into a premature concession speech for Mr. Lamont.

“I turned my campaign over to hired guns who think that running to the middle is a winning strategy—even though it’s proven to be a loser time and time and time again,” the post read.

In a recent post for his popular left-wing political blog MyDD, Matt Stoller called Democratic leaders “moral lepers” for abandoning Mr. Lamont.

“What I have seen in this race is a complete abrogation of responsibility on the part of everybody except the netroots and Ned Lamont,” Mr. Stoller said in a telephone interview. “Trusting these people is a huge tactical error. Never trust anything that these insider Democrats tell you,” he said, adding, for good measure, “Bill Clinton is a liar.”

Bill Clinton is a liar? You're just catching on to that one, huh?

But the significant line out of that quote goes to the heart of their problem: "running to the middle" as a strategy is "proven to be a loser time and time and time again".

Actually what's proving to be a loser time and time and time again is Left-wing radicalism. That giant sucking sound you hear is the air blowing out of the balloons at Lamont For Senate headquarters.

“I’ve become a little anxious about the quiet that seems to have set in,” added Catherine DeNunzio, an elegant 83-year-old woman wearing a blue sweater and matching eye shadow. She also complained about the enthusiasm leaking from Mr. Lamont’s campaign and wasn’t optimistic about his prospects. “But we might have shaken things up anyway.”

Shaken up? Hardly. If an Independent Joe Lieberman is returned to the Senate by a significant margin in a state as Blue as CT, what does that say about the significance of the nutroots?

Oh, and did I mention the Quinnipiac poll released today that has Lieberman up 12?

Posted by: Gary at 02:13 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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Kerry Smears, Moonbats Cheer

Sen. John effin' Kerry's smear of the military is actually exciting some Leftards. Should come as no surprise as his insulting comment reflects exactly how they feel about them.

As Martin Lewis at the HuffPo screams for Kerry to stop digging himself deeper, some of the comments on his post speak volumes:

- from "balance":
"Anyone that would join the military and knowingly be used as a pawn for Bush is an idiot. I hope Kerry does not apologize."

- from "superfly":
"It's about time Kerry fought back! John, do NOT apologize to these criminals!"

- from "accountability":
"there is no bomb. kerry did not mispeak. i don't think he was telling a joke, instead confirming what we already knew, that under the abysmal bush, there is a steady recruitment of cannon fodder - the poorly educatied, with no jobs and no future to look forward to. "

and
- from "boblahblah":
"Even though Kerry apparently muffed his so called attempt at a joke - HE GOT IT RIGHT... THE BULK OF OUR MILITARY IS MADE UP OF PEOPLE WHO DO NOT HAVE COLLEGE DEGREES NOR A LOT OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES - THAT'S WHY MOST OF THEM ENLISTED!"

If you haven't already, it's time to circle November 7th on your calendar. And bring a friend.

Two years ago, this country dodged a major bullet. This year, it's just as important for Republicans to show up at the polls.

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Media Alert - Bush On Rush This Afternoon

The President will have an interview on the Rush Limbaugh show today.

UPDATE:12:30pm!!

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Quote Of The Day

"Could Karl Rove have dreamed up a better October surprise than having the Democrats' most recent choice for Commander in Chief suggest that the men and women are dying [in Iraq] because they weren't smart enough to get into law school?"

- Karen Tumulty
Time Magazine
10/31/06

John Kerry's attitude toward the military is locked in a template formed by Vietnam, and one that is shared by so many elitist Liberals. For them, military service is either a line item you use to pad your political resume or something that's only for suckers who can't get out of it, like jury duty.

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