2008 GOP Presidential Field...

During the last election cycle, one of my favorite spots for polls and political handicapping was Polipundit. One of the contributors, Alexander K. McClure (who apparently called the Senate gains of 4 to 5 seats prior to November) takes a little (very) early look at the potential candidates for '08.

My take:

The Gov's: Pawlenty (MN), Sanford (SC), Romney (MA), Pataki (NY) & Bush (FL).

• I'm not familiar with Pawlenty or Sanford.
• Romney is a dark horse - IMO.
• Pataki? For the life of me I can't understand why this guy's name EVER comes up. He's, frankly, a disaster. I know from proximity.
• Bush apparently is wary of the "dynasty" thing. I think the American people are as well. Best for him to wait, he's young.

The Senators: Frist (TN), Santorum (PA), Allen (VA), McCain (AZ), Hagel (NE) & Brownback (KS).

• Frist would probably make a good candidate - conservative physician from the Mid-South - but he has yet to prove he has the cojones for a tough race.
• Santorum is a big question mark. He represents a swing State and he'd be popular with the base, but what appeal does he have beyond that? We'll have to see if he makes a name for himself in the next couple of years.
• George Allen strikes me as pretty likable, down-to-earth type of candidate - much like Bush was. I probably like him as much as any of the others, but again will he be buried in the stampede?
• McCain, forget it. He pisses off the base to much. Plays it too cute with the media. I'm convinced he almost caught lightning in a bottle in 2000, but that opportunity is gone.
• Chuck Hagel - this is guy who is so desperate to be President but doesn't understand why no one else thinks it's a good idea.
• Brownback - probably the most conservative of the bunch. The right will love him but his appeal may be limited.

All in all Senators have the toughest time because a) they are on record for pretty much every issue you can think of and b) the temperment required to succeed in the Senate is often at odds with the one that gets you elected President.

The wildcards: Guiliani & Rice

• Rudy is first in the hearts of the American people but when it comes down to brass taxes (whatever that means), I doubt he can get the nomination even though as a national candidate he would be formidable - especially against Hillary.
• Condi - Ah, Condoleeza Rice. She's pretty much the dream candidate. The two big problems is that she is a very private person and may shrink in the spotlight and she may very well not want it anyway. Personally, I think she'd be a shoo-in, but there are also a lot of unanswered questions in the Domestic Issue arena - and the answers might very well chip away at her current luster. She may, however, be the leading candidate for Veep regardless of the top of the ticket.

So, in a nutshell I would put the top five for me (in order of enthusiasm):
5) Rudy Giuliani
4) Sam Brownback
3) Bill Frist
2) George Allen
and
1) Condi!

No seeing as two to three years is an eternity in politics, we have a long wait to see who's for sure going to throw their hat in the ring. After the 2006 elections, Bush may make a subtle nod to one or two.

Posted by: Gary at 09:05 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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