October 10, 2006
The RNC will certainly distance themselves from this. But, damn, it's funny.
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Don't show me generic ballot questions. Show me individual races. 95% are already decided. The districts are so gerrymandered that the deck is stacked against a control change that would look anything remotely like the one from 1994.
Go ahead, call me naive. But think closely about these polls. They call a bunch of registered voters and ask if they would support the Republican or Democrat. No names or specific candidates, mind you. Just the parties. A third of the electorate doesn't even belong to one.
The question is basically a snapshot referendum on party preference - which one the respondent dislikes the least.
Comparing this data to the handful of competitive races is apples and oranges. If you're breathlessly watching generic ballot polls, keep watching and tell me what you see next week and the week after and so on. The only significance is that if the MSM keeps beating this drum, Republicans may get frustrated and depressed and figure "why bother?".
But then, that's exactly what they're hoping for. Some on the GOP side (or Conservative side) are already throwing in the towel. That's a mistake. Because a low turnout on one side will certainly push these close races in favor of the other.
Rusty says it best:
If you don't vote, the record will show that you had a chance to stop this onslaught of leftwing insanity, and you submitted.By "leftwing insanity", he's referring to the laundry list of horrible consequences that would result from a Democrat-controlled House. Go read the list and cringe.
Bill Bennett has a similar message to Conservatives, also a worthy read.
If you're at all skeptical that this Foley story was designed to suppress turnout, read The American Prowler this morning:
According to one political consultant with ties to the DNC and other party organizations, "I'm hearing the Foley story wasn't supposed to drop until about ten days out of the election. It was supposed the coup de grace, not the first shot."Ten days, eh? It would have made a lot more sense. Remember the impact of the Bush DUI story FIVE DAYS before the 2000 election? Same principle here.So why the rush? According to another DNC operative: bad polling numbers across the country. "Bush's national security speeches were getting traction beyond the base, gas prices were dropping, economic outlook surveys were positive. We were seeing bad Democratic numbers in Missouri, Michigan, Washington, Arizona, Florida Pennsylvania, even parts of New York," says the operative. "A month before, we were looking at launching an offensive against Republicans who according to polling barely held a five-seat majority if the election were to be held at the end of August. That was doable for Democrats from September 1 to November 7. But by mid-September, Republicans were back to having held seats for a 15-seat majority. In the Senate, it looked like a wash. We held seats in Florida, Nebraska, picked up seats in Pennsylvania, but that that was about it. They were holding in Missouri and possibly within reach of Maryland and Washington. We were looking at a disaster in the making."
The story originally broke ten days ago. If they had followed through on the original plan - ten days before the election - then imagine that today was the election. Look at the polls, the opinion, the MSM spin. It would have worked like a charm. Because dispirited Republicans would have figured "why bother?".
Now is not the time to be dispirited. Now is the time to be fired up.
Can the Democrats and their media buddies keep the intensity of this story going for 28 more days? Doubtful. But if we let it, it could be remembered as the moment when the tide turned against the GOP.
There's lots of time remaining on the clock. And plenty of time to turn the tide back.
Now stop being such a bunch of whiny, bitching pussies and let's prevent the "left wing insanity."
UPDATE:
As usual, Bull Dog Pundit does a fair job of reading the fine print and poking the NYT and WaPo polls full of holes. His point dovetails with this post in that the MSM is using the polls to drive "news".
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I swear I damn near wet myself over this one.
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"The United States does not need a multi-billion-dollar national missile defense against the possibility of a nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile."Considering this weekend's developments in North Korea, every voter needs to think about this very carefully.
- "would-be House Speaker" Nancy Pelosi,
April 12, 2003
h/t: Hugh Hewitt
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October 09, 2006
If you're so inclined you can check them out here.
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There are a couple of different points of view as to whether or not there is an "Iraq Metaphor" going on with Battlestar Galactica. You can see some of the comments from the last post: here.
My own impressions are that the writers left it open to interpretation. If you see the similarities, then they're there. However, I tend to agree with RightWingProf that the Cylon occupation is more analogous to occupied France during WWII. If there is any analogy at all. My own opinion is the Ronald D. Moore and Co. have been fairly even-handed to date and I'm willing to give them the benefit of the date.
At most, I think they are addressing issues that people can relate to - many of them are controversial. This drives ratings and makes it a much more interesting show. But I don't detect a particular bias promoting one point of view or the other. It's more of a glimpse into the overall human condition.
Feel free to discuss. Please keep it civil!
More discussion over at MidnightBlue and RightWingNation.
If I find opinion on the web, I'll post it here as an update.
UPDATE:
That was quick. Jonah Goldberg of National Review plans a column on the subject or at least some commentary at The Corner within the next twenty-four hours.
UPDATE II:
I listened to the Ron Moore podcast of Friday's episode on iTunes.
Here's the skinny:
Moore (and his wife who is a co-writer) commented on the setting of occupied New Caprica. While they acknowledged that there are elements of Iraq in the storyline they also said that they are mixed in with parallels of other occupations - such as France in WWII, the West Bank, colonial America. All of the writers, he said, are very familiar with many aspects of human history - not just recent history.
He said he's been asked quite a bit about Iraq and he explained that he was not intending to make any political statements about current events, rather he was drawing on many different elements to create situations within which the characters react to in different ways. For example, what would Chief Tyrol do here or how would Tigh respond to this or Laura Roslin, etc. etc.
As to the inclusion of a "suicide mission", they are trying to "ratchet up" the events on New Caprica because they are leading to a major clash that will coincide with the return of Galactica. The Cylons reaction to it is important in pushing them and the humans on a sort of "collision course".
Essentially, next week's episode is a major event and these two episodes combined are meant for the audience to fully absorb the situation that leads up to it.
There was other stuff but the only other item of note regarding the New Caprica Police graduation ceremony and Duck's suicide bombing is to show that shocking things like that really happen. And rather than just hearing about it on the news, Moore wanted to present the grisly details and horrific aftermath of such an act. He was nervous that the network (Sci-Fi, which is owned by NBC) would object to showing it so graphically but he said they were actually very supportive.
Could Moore be full of crap about all this? Sure, but I'll give the benefit of the doubt here.
UPDATE III:
Jonah Goldberg (finally) weighes in. His take: Yes, it was blatant Iraq, but...
RightWingProf even gets a link!
UPDATE IV:
Was reminded by a comment on a thread at HotAir.com that this isn't the first time we've seen a suicide bombing on BSG. In season one, one of the Doral Cylons blew himself up on Galactica killing three people. Not as devastating as the one from this season, but still...
Interesting. The episode was titled "Litmus". Cylons as insurgents, maybe? I don't remember the Left get all huffy over that one.
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October 07, 2006

And this week's Diane Lane Netflix Pick of the Week:

Rumble Fish (1983)
Synopsis:
In Francis Ford Coppola's black-and-white adaptation of the S.E. Hinton novel, Rusty James (Matt Dillon) is the leader of a small, dying gang once led by his now-absent brother, Motorcycle Boy (Mickey Rourke). When Rusty is injured in a gang fight, his brother returns to their sad, industrial town to help. Despite this, Rusty continues on his path of self-destruction, damaging his relationships with his girlfriend (Diane Lane) and friends.
Gary's take: I picked this one to compliment the black-and-white photo above. Face it. It's the kind of a movie that's short on story and long on cinematic "technique". Show the wife or girlfriend that you can appreciate fine film making. Yeah, right. It's definitely worth a look, though, if you've never seen it. And you get see how hot Diane Lane is in black-and-white. Look for top notch performances from Mickey Rourke and Dennis Hopper. Matt Dillon does a fine job as well. And look also for early performances by a young Nicolas Cage and the late Chris Penn.
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October 06, 2006
Battlestar Galactica, Season Three premieres tonight at 9pm
on Sci-fi Channel (2 hr episode)
Let's go, ladies!
UPDATE:
Wow. Very intense. Before people get all pissy about the suicide bomber thing, keep in mind they didn't glorify it. In fact, I didn't pick up on any particular value judgements. The scene with Roslin confronting Tigh over it was interesting. I found the overall take very neutral.
They did a LOT in this episode (or episodes depending on how you look at it).
I remain impressed. And looking forward eagerly to next week.
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No, it's not completely over, yet. But the frenzy that is Foleymania seems to have worn out even the MSM. What the longer-term impact will be on Nov. 7th is anyone's guess. But I have a feeling it won't be as significant as most people thought it would be back at the beginning of the week.
The key here is that the GOP leadership in the House has closed ranks behind Hastert. If they hadn't, then the new story sucking all of the media oxygen would have been the turmoil they were in - the finger-pointing, the second-guessing, the back-stabbing, leaked anonymous comments, etc. Once again, Republican candidates would have been knocked off message and the MSM would have been framing the debate on behalf of their Dem buddies.
I'm getting the sense that most people - those who even know the whole story - have gotten to the point where they are just sick of hearing about it.
I actually hope Democrats keep trying to make this an issue. Because it'll come across as petty and underscore yet again to undecided voters that they offer absolutely nothing beyond "we're not them".
With five weeks to go - a long time in politics - the GOP's next step is to get back to the three issues that drive their base: fighting terrorism, protecting tax cuts from expiring and appointing judges.
And, oh by the way, if they don't than you could be looking at this: more...
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It's Friday! Happy Weekend!
I don't understand a single word she is saying but she's adorable.
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October 05, 2006
Excuse me. But what do these guys know about politics?
I mean, one way or the other, why would you rely on what price a particular politician is ranked at? They're no better than day traders at predicting Jack squat. What sells is based on what a large selection of schmucks interprets the way the political winds are shifting on any given day. Jesus, some people will bet on ANYTHING!
Just because a bunch of lemmings have a "gut" feeling about a particular match-up that makes them a seasoned expert? WTF?
Yeah, I know. People are putting money on this crap so they must be doing their research, right?
How about the dumbass who bet it all back in July that oil prices would hit $100 a barrel. He's looking like a smacked ass right about now.
Take my advice. Whatever their rankings...ignore this silliness.
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Present state of play—the Dems and CREW are implicated; ABC’s Brian Ross has his own Rathergate, the FBI and Ethics Committee are going to find out which Dems were involved and CREW will probably lose their tax exempt status. The Dems have shown themselves to be perfectly willing to use homophobia to win when they have no saleable platform or issues; the Republican base is charged up and once again Soros turned his gold into Dem dross.The dam has burst!
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I have no idea what to make of it.
But I can't stop watching it.
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The proposed sign would read:
“Due to a withdrawal of a candidate after the Primary Election which resulted in the substitution of a new candidate by the respective party: In the race for Representative In Congress, District 16, any vote cast for Mark Foley (REP) shall be counted as a vote for Joe Negron (REP).”Seems fair enough, no?
But you just knew what the Democrats' reaction would be. The folks who scream "voter suppression" every single election are howling over this.
The Democrats, whose candidate for FoleyÂ’s district is Tim Mahoney, sent a letter to state elections Director Dawn Roberts on Wednesday saying such a notice would violate a law banning supervisors from favoring a particular party.Nice, huh.They asked Roberts to immediately send a letter instructing supervisors not to post any notices or include them in mailings with absentee ballots.
Seriously though. It won't matter. I have no way of knowing which way that race will ultimately go, but the fact is that Florida Republicans just aren't as stupid as Florida Democrats - who proved back in 2000 that they couldn't even figure out a simple ballot.
I recall voters in Missouri having no problems understanding in 2000 that by voting for a dead guy as their Senator, his wife was actually going to get the votes.
In any case, the GOP will spend plenty of time and money in their GOTV effort to ensure that it's well understood that Foley's votes will go to Negron.
But talk about blatant hypocrisy. Six years ago, Democrats were doing everything they could to manufacture votes and charging Republicans with disenfranchising the simpletons of Palm Beach County. Now they're against a simple clarification that could potentially disenfranchise Republican voters. With them it's always "count every vote", unless it's a vote for the GOP.
What a load of crap.
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Of course that depends on the way you interpret the meaning of the word "wanking":
Khameini, who is Iran's most powerful political and religious figure, was asked on his website : "If somebody masturbates during the month of Ramadan but without any discharge, is his fasting invalidated?"No information was given as to whether or not Khameini sent or received any IMs on the subject."If he do not intend masturbation and discharging semen and nothing is discharged, his fasting is correct even though he has done a ḥarām (forbidden) act. But, if he intends masturbation or he knows that he usually discharges semen by this process and semen really comes out, it is a ḥaram intentional breaking fasting," the Iranian leader said, posting the reply on his website.
Great, as if these dudes don't have enough pent up rage...
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Most informative posts as of this morning from:
Macsmind
Wizbang Blog
Suffice to say, Democrats are getting nervous.
More to come...
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October 04, 2006

Mmmmm...Kate...
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The FEC will eventually key in the DSCC September independent expenditure data sometime after the DSCC files its regular monthly report on October 20th. From past experience, the data will be electronically available after the election. Included in the data will be the over $5 million in independent expenditures made in September that PoliticalMoneyLine has spotted already. For example, the $999,137.90 media buy on 9/1 for the Sherrod Brown v. Mike DeWine race in Ohio; the $900,000 media buy on 9/26 for the Cardin v. Steele race in Maryland; and the $618,616 media buy on 9/26 for the Sherrod Brown v. Mike DeWine race. DSCC independent expenditures in September totaled over $410,000 in Montana, over $265,000 in Tennessee, over $1.9 million in Ohio, over $1.3 million in Missouri, over $190,000 in Rhode Island, and over $900,000 in Maryland.Hmm, let's see. Ohio, Maryland, Tennessee, Montana, Rhode Island...
No Connecticut, huh? Guess Neddy's gonna have to keep writing himself checks to campaign with.
Heh.
UPDATE:
Rasmussen mirrors Quinnipiac poll. Lieberman by 10. That giant sucking sound you hear is the wind emptying out of the nutroots sails in CT.
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AFP report this morning: Brent oil price dunks below 58 dollars in London
Tough shit, dude.
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RealClearPolitics.com has an excellent commentary this morning as to why an editorial from that very paper making just that suggestion is pointless and counter-productive. The author, Peter Mulhern who is also a contributor to the blog "The American Thinker" where the piece is also posted, puts it this way:
It would be pointless because Republicans can't mitigate whatever political damage there is going to be from the Foley scandal by jettisoning Hastert and company. The damage is done and it has nothing to do with the Speaker. Political junkies may think that the Foley scandal hurts because it undermines public trust in the House leadership, but that's not the source of the pain. The number of voters who know or care about the House leadership is infinitesimally small.Denny Hastert has been a relatively quiet Speaker of the House. That's been a good thing, in my opinion. When you have a controversial speaker, you create a target for the opposition. Hastert has been a steady steward, but many Conservatives don't particularly care for him. He hasn't reigned in spending sufficiently. He hasn't paid enough attention to many of the issues that drive them. It's precisely because Hastert hasn't been a lighting rod for Conservatives that many of them think nothing of using this situation with Mark Foley as an excuse to throw him over the side.Democrats didn't keep Mark Foley's sins on ice and serve them up shortly before an election to make Dennis Hastert look negligent. They did it to drive a wedge between the GOP and its evangelical supporters by publicizing the fact that the Republican leadership in Congress gave the benefit of a substantial doubt to a known homosexual.
The tactical calculation behind the Foley scandal is the same as the calculation that drove both John Kerry and John Edwards to babble on about Mary Cheney's sexual orientation in nationally televised debates. Democrats believe that they can suppress the evangelical vote by suggesting that the GOP is too gay friendly and they aren't about to let mere scruples stand in their way. Kerry's lesbian gambit failed because the targeted voters were not the troglodyte simpletons of the Democrats' imagination. They largely recognized and resented the condescension motivating the attack, and affirmed their respect for tender love within a family.
Maybe the Democrats are right about evangelicals this time and maybe they aren't. Either way, replacing the Speaker now would be beside the point. It would also be devastating to the Republican Party.
Mulhern continues:
In politics you never win by losing. Dumping Hastert and the rest of the leadership team would be a loss. His departure would empower Democrats and dispirit Republicans. It would underscore the Republican's principal political liability, which is that many of their own supporters see them as spineless weenies.It's time to fight. Fight to win. As I said yesterday, losing achieves nothing. Losing is for losers. We have a deadly enemy to fight, judges to confirm and tax policies to protect to keep our economy moving forward. Republicans in general - and Conservatives in particular - should think long and hard about what we really have to lose.Caving in to groundless and hysterical criticism is the quintessence of spinelessness. Republicans have made a habit of it.
They were too timid to change the rule that required Tom Delay to resign his leadership post when the rube who passes for a prosecutor in Travis County, Texas trumped up an indictment against him. The Bush administration couldn't stand and fight when it came under fire for including sixteen words in a State of the Union Address, every one of which was true. It never even tried to defend itself when Democrats and the media were spewing nonsense about the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina for the purpose of blaming President Bush for everything that may have gone wrong in New Orleans. One could, as Zell Miller once said, "go on and on and on."
Republicans can't afford to crumble yet again just five weeks before an election. They can't win a fight without fighting and it's better to start late than never.
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