April 24, 2005

Things looking bleak for Canadian Liberal party...

The future of Paul Martin's Liberals got even darker this weekend as the leader of the ultra-Left New Democrat Party (NDP), Jack Layton, dismissed the possibility of building a coalition with the Liberals.

"We're certainly not talking about a coalition. We're talking about the budget ... there's nothing more," Layton told Reuters in a phone interview.

Layton said he would consider backing the budget if the government canceled planned corporate tax cuts and put more money into social programs.

In the face of the AdScam scandal, Canada's Liberals may be facing a sound beating this spring if the Tories and Bloc Quebecois unite to call for new elections. A recent Ipsos-Reid opinion poll released on Friday show support for the Conservatives surging:

The survey by Ipsos-Reid, provided exclusively to CanWest/Global, reveals Stephen Harper's Tories hold a "solid" five-point lead over the Liberals under Prime Minister Paul Martin. Thirty-five per cent would vote Conservative
nationally, compared with 30% for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, 12% for the Bloc Quebecois and 5% for the Green party.

Most importantly, the Conservatives have broken the Liberals' grip in vote-rich Ontario, where the fate of the upcoming election will likely be determined. The Tories have the support of 40% of Ontarians, compared to 36% for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP
and 4% for the Greens.

"The minimum that you're looking at here is probably a pretty strong Tory minority government," Ipsos-Reid senior official Darrell Bricker said. "And they're now bumping up against a majority."

The erosion of support for the Liberals from their base in the Province of Ontario is the equivalent of the Democrats in the U.S. losing ground in solid Blue States like New York, Massachusetts or California.

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