Smile if you're a Conservative...

Hey there Mr. Grumpy-Gills, don't be so glum! While it might seem from the narrow view that Conservatism seems to have hit the skids - social security reform, filibuster games, insurgents in Iraq still raising their ugly heads - when you look at the big picture optimism should be the flavor of the day. And Conservatism is winning. A quick read through the latest WSJ column penned by the British authors of "The Right Nation", John Micklethwait and Adrian Woolridge, provides some much needed perspective.

Messrs Micklethwait and Woolridge pose the questions "What direction is America moving in?" and "How does the U.S. compare with the rest of the world?". First, look at the last election.

The Republicans have by far the most powerful political machine in the country. Last November, the Democrats threw everything they had at George Bush, from the pent-up fury of a "stolen election" to the millions of George Soros. Liberals outspent and out-ranted conservatives, and pushed up Democratic turnout by 12%.

But the Republicans increased their turnout by a fifth. Crucially, George Bush won as a conservative: He did not "triangulate" or hide behind a fuzzy "Morning in America" message. Against the background of an unpopular war and an arguably dodgy economy, he positioned himself to the right, betting that conservative America was bigger than liberal America. And it was: The exit polls showed both Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry won 85% of their base, but self-described "conservatives" accounted for nearly a third of the electorate while liberals were only a fifth. Mr. Bush could afford to lose "moderates" to Mr. Kerry by nine points--and still end up with 51% of the vote, more than any Democrat has got since 1964.

As for the Bush agenda seeming to be constantly thwarted by the so-called "moderate" mavericks in the party, let's remember that such give and take is a testament to the strength of the Republican coalition.

But is this loss of steam really all that remarkable? All second-term presidents face restlessness in the ranks. And the noise is arguably a sign of strength. The Democrats would give a lot to have a big-tent party as capacious as the Republicans'. One of the reasons the GOP manages to contain Southern theocrats as well as Western libertarians is that it encourages arguments rather than suppressing them. Go to a meeting of young conservatives in Washington and the atmosphere crackles with ideas, much as it did in London in the heyday of the Thatcher revolution. The Democrats barely know what a debate is.

And look at the role-reversal done by America's two major political parties over the last forty years. Having grown up in the death-throws of Liberalism, I don't remember its heydey (I was in diapers when LBJ announced "I will not seek, nor will I accept my party's nomination...) but I can imagine lonely Conservatives watching Ronald Reagan's famous "rendezvous with destiny" speech endorsing Goldwater in 1964. As the reporters from "The Economist" point out:

Indeed, the left has reached the same level of fury that the right reached in the 1960s--but with none of the intellectual inventiveness. On everything from Social Security to foreign policy to economic policy, it is reduced merely to opposing conservative ideas. This strategy may have punctured the Bush reforms on Social Security, but it has also bared a deeper weakness for the left. In the 1960s, the conservative movement coalesced around several simple propositions--lower taxes, more religion, an America-first foreign policy--that eventually revolutionized politics. The modern left is split on all these issues, between New Democrats and back-to-basics liberals.

Micklethwait and Woolridge are from Britain and they don't have a dog in this fight. So you can view their analysis as a bit more objective than one from someone just preaching to the choir. Their book, BTW, is just out in paperback and gives a fair analysis of the rise of Conservatism since the 1950's. Having read it a while back, I can definitely recommend it.

Posted by: Gary at 07:45 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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