October 10, 2006

Turning Out

Interesting polls these days, eh? I'm sorry. I'm not buying it. Has momentum turned in the Dems favor? Perhaps. But not that much. And it remains to be seen if it can last another four weeks.

Don't show me generic ballot questions. Show me individual races. 95% are already decided. The districts are so gerrymandered that the deck is stacked against a control change that would look anything remotely like the one from 1994.

Go ahead, call me naive. But think closely about these polls. They call a bunch of registered voters and ask if they would support the Republican or Democrat. No names or specific candidates, mind you. Just the parties. A third of the electorate doesn't even belong to one.

The question is basically a snapshot referendum on party preference - which one the respondent dislikes the least.

Comparing this data to the handful of competitive races is apples and oranges. If you're breathlessly watching generic ballot polls, keep watching and tell me what you see next week and the week after and so on. The only significance is that if the MSM keeps beating this drum, Republicans may get frustrated and depressed and figure "why bother?".

But then, that's exactly what they're hoping for. Some on the GOP side (or Conservative side) are already throwing in the towel. That's a mistake. Because a low turnout on one side will certainly push these close races in favor of the other.

Rusty says it best:

If you don't vote, the record will show that you had a chance to stop this onslaught of leftwing insanity, and you submitted.
By "leftwing insanity", he's referring to the laundry list of horrible consequences that would result from a Democrat-controlled House. Go read the list and cringe.

Bill Bennett has a similar message to Conservatives, also a worthy read.

If you're at all skeptical that this Foley story was designed to suppress turnout, read The American Prowler this morning:

According to one political consultant with ties to the DNC and other party organizations, "I'm hearing the Foley story wasn't supposed to drop until about ten days out of the election. It was supposed the coup de grace, not the first shot."

So why the rush? According to another DNC operative: bad polling numbers across the country. "Bush's national security speeches were getting traction beyond the base, gas prices were dropping, economic outlook surveys were positive. We were seeing bad Democratic numbers in Missouri, Michigan, Washington, Arizona, Florida Pennsylvania, even parts of New York," says the operative. "A month before, we were looking at launching an offensive against Republicans who according to polling barely held a five-seat majority if the election were to be held at the end of August. That was doable for Democrats from September 1 to November 7. But by mid-September, Republicans were back to having held seats for a 15-seat majority. In the Senate, it looked like a wash. We held seats in Florida, Nebraska, picked up seats in Pennsylvania, but that that was about it. They were holding in Missouri and possibly within reach of Maryland and Washington. We were looking at a disaster in the making."

Ten days, eh? It would have made a lot more sense. Remember the impact of the Bush DUI story FIVE DAYS before the 2000 election? Same principle here.

The story originally broke ten days ago. If they had followed through on the original plan - ten days before the election - then imagine that today was the election. Look at the polls, the opinion, the MSM spin. It would have worked like a charm. Because dispirited Republicans would have figured "why bother?".

Now is not the time to be dispirited. Now is the time to be fired up.

Can the Democrats and their media buddies keep the intensity of this story going for 28 more days? Doubtful. But if we let it, it could be remembered as the moment when the tide turned against the GOP.

There's lots of time remaining on the clock. And plenty of time to turn the tide back.

Now stop being such a bunch of whiny, bitching pussies and let's prevent the "left wing insanity."

UPDATE:
As usual, Bull Dog Pundit does a fair job of reading the fine print and poking the NYT and WaPo polls full of holes. His point dovetails with this post in that the MSM is using the polls to drive "news".

Posted by: Gary at 12:00 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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1 See the Drudge report for the list of media outlets that were offered the page story (since May 05). Now who endangered the page's if they were in danger.

Posted by: Scrapiron at October 10, 2006 07:08 PM (fEnUg)

2 The purpose of all this skewed polling is so the Dems can scream election fraud! when they lose. After all, with all the pre-election polling showing dems with double-digit leads in practically every race, how else could they lose, except by Rethuglican trickery?

Posted by: C-141 Crew Dog at October 11, 2006 04:51 PM (oer/N)

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