November 07, 2006
At no point in this election season did I ever - EVER - consider not voting. It's almost like I've been in line to vote for the last year. And I finally did so at around 8:15 this morning. Turnout at my polling place was a lot higher than I expected.
But brace yourself for Republican-turnout dampening doom and gloom. Yes, the networks say they're not "officially" releasing exit polls but as soon as they become available to the MSM, they'll leak faster than a Depends adult diaper on "Nickel Beer Thursday" at a college bar.
No matter what you hear, don't believe them. You remember how F'd up the exit polls were two years ago don't you? And exit polls aren't quickie "who did you vote for" polls, they're extended interviews with lots of demographic and issues questions. I don't have time for that. I'm not a college student with nothing better to do or a union member who has the day off. I have to cast my vote and get my butt to work. If the exit pollers asked me to talk to them this morning I would have had to respectfully decline because I was already running late. Also, it's important to note that in most races there is a higher than normal rate of absentee balloting and early voting among Republicans, which means they will be fewer than normal at the actual polling places today.
I'm not making predictions because I have nothing on which to base them other than what my gut tells me. Any pollster that picks the results accurately by the end of the day will be the luckiest sumbitch in the political world. Because he doesn't know either. I've always believed that, when all is said and done, the GOP holds both chambers of Congress. I still believe that.
Here's what I do know. These races are a lot closer than the "Blue wave" hype would have had you expect. Races that are dead even or where Republicans are trailing a few points give the GOP a distinct advantage because of their excellent GOTV operation. I think we're in for a few surprises today. It looks like the NY Times is even hedging its bets.
The only prediction I will make is that there will likely be at least a handful of House races that are so close that the lawyers will be out in full force Wednesday morning. It's quite possible (maybe probable) that we won't have solid results by the end of the evening, or even tomorrow.
Regardless of what happens I won't be posting for at least another twenty-four hours. So let the shit fall where it may.
Posted by: Skye at November 07, 2006 08:05 PM (2NAoV)
Posted by: Mark Borok at November 08, 2006 09:14 AM (L69x5)
Posted by: Ned Prozac at November 08, 2006 09:37 AM (WKMno)
Posted by: Gary at November 08, 2006 12:40 PM (FX2Z/)
Posted by: Mark Borok at November 08, 2006 04:21 PM (L69x5)
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