November 07, 2006

My Votes Are Cast

Are yours?

At no point in this election season did I ever - EVER - consider not voting. It's almost like I've been in line to vote for the last year. And I finally did so at around 8:15 this morning. Turnout at my polling place was a lot higher than I expected.

But brace yourself for Republican-turnout dampening doom and gloom. Yes, the networks say they're not "officially" releasing exit polls but as soon as they become available to the MSM, they'll leak faster than a Depends adult diaper on "Nickel Beer Thursday" at a college bar.

No matter what you hear, don't believe them. You remember how F'd up the exit polls were two years ago don't you? And exit polls aren't quickie "who did you vote for" polls, they're extended interviews with lots of demographic and issues questions. I don't have time for that. I'm not a college student with nothing better to do or a union member who has the day off. I have to cast my vote and get my butt to work. If the exit pollers asked me to talk to them this morning I would have had to respectfully decline because I was already running late. Also, it's important to note that in most races there is a higher than normal rate of absentee balloting and early voting among Republicans, which means they will be fewer than normal at the actual polling places today.

I'm not making predictions because I have nothing on which to base them other than what my gut tells me. Any pollster that picks the results accurately by the end of the day will be the luckiest sumbitch in the political world. Because he doesn't know either. I've always believed that, when all is said and done, the GOP holds both chambers of Congress. I still believe that.

Here's what I do know. These races are a lot closer than the "Blue wave" hype would have had you expect. Races that are dead even or where Republicans are trailing a few points give the GOP a distinct advantage because of their excellent GOTV operation. I think we're in for a few surprises today. It looks like the NY Times is even hedging its bets.

The only prediction I will make is that there will likely be at least a handful of House races that are so close that the lawyers will be out in full force Wednesday morning. It's quite possible (maybe probable) that we won't have solid results by the end of the evening, or even tomorrow.

Regardless of what happens I won't be posting for at least another twenty-four hours. So let the shit fall where it may.

If you're looking for insider scuttlebutt, more power to you. Go visit and bookmark "the indispensible" Jim Geraghty, NRO's The Corner and Sixers. And check in with Hugh Hewitt every now and again.

Posted by: Gary at 11:00 AM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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1 Voted!! Crossed party lines and voted Republican! I even have photos to prove it

Posted by: Skye at November 07, 2006 08:05 PM (2NAoV)

2 Well, the Republican GOTV wasn't enough. The problem with depending on that is you assume the Dems haven't been learning from their opponents and improving their own operation. Even if it's not at the same level as Rove's, I think the gap is getting smaller.

Posted by: Mark Borok at November 08, 2006 09:14 AM (L69x5)

3 Congrats to you guys...once again special interest money wins. But at least we will able to hang onto Social Security...and we forced Joe out of the closet and had him show his true republican colors.

Posted by: Ned Prozac at November 08, 2006 09:37 AM (WKMno)

4 Mark, I haven't seen the breakdown of apparently was a huge turnout overall. But based on which Democrats were elected (in the House in particular), I'm guessing that unaffiliated turnout was what made the difference and they were willing to allow the Dems an audition. It will be interesting to see what they do now.

Posted by: Gary at November 08, 2006 12:40 PM (FX2Z/)

5 Gary, Now that you mention it, I did read about the independents as a force. I don't think that invalidates my point, nor the larger point that no party should count on its advantages remaining advantages when the other party can learn from and copy them.

Posted by: Mark Borok at November 08, 2006 04:21 PM (L69x5)

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