October 24, 2006

Them Funky Polls

Another poll, another flawed methodology.

The MSM is trying their hardest to dampen GOP spirits. And another day brings another poll - one that says to Republicans: "You're Doomed!"

But hold on a minute, we ought to take a closer look behind the numbers. And BullDogPundit - once again - points out some peculiarities that go to the heart of its credibility.

In the poll, 22% of respondents aren’t even eligible to vote. And of those 78% that are registered, a full 25% either claimed they would “probably vote”, or that chances were, at best 50/50 that they would do so. And strangely, 78% were registered, 22% weren’t and 3% “had no opinion”. Um, that’s 103%, which strangely does match the historical voting participation rate in many of many urban areas, graveyards, pet stores, homeless shelters (in Democrat wards) and Alzheimer’s wings of nursing homes.

WhatÂ’s also interesting is that the poll doesnÂ’t ask these people if they actually voted in 2004 (or 2002), and if so, who they voted for.

Further, just looking at the demographics should give you pause. The poll is made up of 35% “Independents” and “Others”, which Republicans only make up 28% of all respondents (Democrats make up 30%). In 2004, only 26% of voters were “Independents”, and that was in a Presidential race. So come on, do these idiots really think that on election day 40% of voters are going to be unaffiliated with either party? Give me a break.

Add to that all these polls of local races that show conflicting results and - call me silly - I'd have to say that I'm having a hard time believing the hype.

And neither side should. This is going to come down to turn out - pure and simple. And for the last two election cycles, the GOP has the edge there. It's GOTV is effective. The Democrats GOTV comes down to bribing homeless people with booze and smokes.

DNC Chair Howard Dean has been squandering money on his 50-state pipedream and now his Committee is resorting to borrowing money, while Republicans have plenty of cash on hand.

Two weeks to go and a Democrat takeover over of Congress is far from assured.

Posted by: Gary at 12:50 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
Post contains 373 words, total size 2 kb.

1 It boils down to nothing more than a combination of two age-old strategies. First, if you convince an enemy he is beaten, whether he really is or not, his motivation for succeeding will diminish considerably, if not evaporate entirely. Second, if you repeat something enough times, for a long enough time, no matter how outlandish, erroneous, or fallacious the "something" is, people will start believing it. Kind of sad that people are resorting to these kinds of ploys, but considering how much the Democrats are enamoured of the second, the first was just a matter of time...

Posted by: Linoge at October 25, 2006 08:18 AM (dPy7Q)

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