August 07, 2006

If Lamont Wins, Expect More Than Lieberman To Go "Independent"

This time tomorrow, Democrats will be casting their votes in the CT primary to choose which candidates will have a (D) after their names on the November ballot.

As of now, it's not looking good for CT's junior Senator to stay a Democrat. Recent polls show anywhere from a 10-point lead to a 6-point lead, with Lieberman starting to narrow the gap.

The problem with primary polls is that it's so difficult to pin down likely voters or predict turnout. How many people in CT even know tomorrow is a primary day? Hard to guess.

But considering the trend, my guess is that a little more than half of the registered Democrats in CT who turn out will be pulling the lever for Lamont. So where does this leave the other (slightly less than half) who still support Joe Lieberman?

Very likely, they will still have a chance to vote for him in November because - barring some unforeseen circumstances - it's looking like Lieberman will appear on the ballot under the party "Connecticut For Lieberman". Joe will go independent. Some Democrats complain that if he can't run as a Democrat that he shouldn't run. Well, others would argue that if they don't live in CT, many of Lamont's supporters around the country shouldn't be spending so much time and money on a race that doesn't directly affect their representation.

All's fair in love and politics.

At this point, I will only make one prediction. If Lamont prevails, it could well be the catalyst for a significant number of registered Democrats to finally decide that they've had enough.

Accoring to CNN's exit polling, in 2004 the party affiliation in CT was:
Democrat (37%)
Republican (31%)
Independent (32%)

Two years from now, expect that number for "Independent" to be higher, chiefly at the expense of the "Democrat" number. CT is a pretty "Blue" State and a vast majority would probably poll as being "against" our presence in Iraq. But only a portion of those voters feel so strongly on that issue - and are so consumed with Bush-hatred - that they would turn out an otherwise Liberal-voting incumbent Senator who has demonstrated the level of integrity that Joe Lieberman has over the last 18 years.

If after tomorrow, Senator Lieberman is kicked out of his party than I expect there will be a number of party members who will join the ranks of the ex-donkeys.

Don't be surprised to be reading new blogs a year or two from now identifying this primary election as their "moment of clarity" when they decided that they no longer felt comfortable belonging to a party that says "agree with us or get out".

UPDATE:
AJ Strata weighes in:

The Democrats, it seems, are preparing to go down into the history books as the party that could not cope with changing times. It will end through a series of angry outbursts and dreams of impeaching President Bush as the answer to all of the worldÂ’s problems - including Islamo Fascism. The far leftÂ’s tunnel vision has warped their sense of reality to the point that even listening in on the plans of those who want to kill as many Americans in order to stop their efforts as possible is considered illegal. When you are that far gone all you do is build walls between yourself and reality.

UPDATE DEUX:
Jed Babbin at The American Spectator:

The effect of a Lieberman purge should reverberate throughout America. A political party that cannot tolerate dissent, that cannot accept as legitimate any position that doesn't hew to the leftmost fringe, cannot last unless its opponents fail to take advantage of its fundamental weakness. If the kiss on the cheek Lieberman got from the president proves to be the coup fatal, it could be one that produces a veto-proof Republican Senate.

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